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Genoa U20 vs Cagliari U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Genoa U20
Genoa U20
Preview
10:00
Cagliari U20
Cagliari U20
12/16/2026Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 15
44%
Genoa U20
model favours
44%24%32%

Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Genoa U2044%
×Draw24%
Cagliari U2032%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genoa U20
1.64
Cagliari U20
1.35

Genoa U20 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 39 away

creates per match

Genoa U20
1.58
Cagliari U20
1.15

allows per match

Genoa U20
1.55
Cagliari U20
1.69

finishing

Genoa U20+0.00on par
Cagliari U20+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genoa U20 ↓

Cagliari U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Genoa U20 or draw
68%
Genoa U20 or Cagliari U20
76%
Draw or Cagliari U20
56%

Winning margin

Genoa U20 wins by 2+
23%
Cagliari U20 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Genoa U20 1+ goals
81%
Genoa U20 2+ goals
49%
Genoa U20 3+ goals
23%
Cagliari U20 1+ goals
74%
Cagliari U20 2+ goals
39%
Cagliari U20 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Genoa U20 (draw refunded)
58%
Cagliari U20 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genoa U20 at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.55 · 38 matches

Cagliari U20 away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.69 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genoa U20 attack 1.58 + Cagliari U20 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.64

Cagliari U20 attack 1.15 + Genoa U20 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Genoa U20 scores more
44%
level
24%
Cagliari U20 scores more
32%

Genoa U20 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Genoa U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
U20
LDLLW
U20
WDDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Genoa U20 face Cagliari U20 (Campionato Primavera - 1)

Campionato Primavera - 1 returns with Genoa U20 hosting Cagliari U20. Match starts December 16, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.