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Genoa U20 vs Atalanta U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Genoa U20
Genoa U20
Preview
09:00
Atalanta U20
Atalanta U20
9/19/2026Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 5
39%
Genoa U20
model favours
39%24%36%

Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Genoa U2039%
×Draw24%
Atalanta U2036%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genoa U20
1.52
Atalanta U20
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Genoa U20
1.58
Atalanta U20
1.37

allows per match

Genoa U20
1.55
Atalanta U20
1.47

finishing

Genoa U20+0.00on par
Atalanta U20+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genoa U20 ↓

Atalanta U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Genoa U20 or draw
64%
Genoa U20 or Atalanta U20
76%
Draw or Atalanta U20
61%

Winning margin

Genoa U20 wins by 2+
19%
Atalanta U20 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Genoa U20 1+ goals
78%
Genoa U20 2+ goals
45%
Genoa U20 3+ goals
20%
Atalanta U20 1+ goals
77%
Atalanta U20 2+ goals
43%
Atalanta U20 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Genoa U20 (draw refunded)
52%
Atalanta U20 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genoa U20 at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.55 · 38 matches

Atalanta U20 away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.47 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genoa U20 attack 1.58 + Atalanta U20 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.52

Atalanta U20 attack 1.37 + Genoa U20 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Genoa U20 scores more
39%
level
24%
Atalanta U20 scores more
36%

Genoa U20 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Genoa U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 4 meetings averaged 3.8 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
LDLLW
U20
LWLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Genoa U20 vs Atalanta U20 — Match Preview

Genoa U20 face Atalanta U20 on September 19, 2026 in this Campionato Primavera - 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.