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Genk W vs Eendracht Aalst W — Super League Women 2018

Genk W
Genk W
FT
3 – 0
Eendracht Aalst W
Eendracht Aalst W
3/5/2021Super League WomenSuper League Women · Round 15Sportcomplex Zwartberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Genk W63%
×Draw18%
Eendracht Aalst W18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genk W
2.46
Eendracht Aalst W
1.25

Genk W creates 97% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 40 away

creates per match

Genk W
1.84
Eendracht Aalst W
1.07

allows per match

Genk W
1.43
Eendracht Aalst W
3.08

finishing

Genk W+0.00on par
Eendracht Aalst W+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genk W ↓

Eendracht Aalst W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Genk W or draw
82%
Genk W or Eendracht Aalst W
82%
Draw or Eendracht Aalst W
37%

Winning margin

Genk W wins by 2+
42%
Eendracht Aalst W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Genk W 1+ goals
91%
Genk W 2+ goals
70%
Genk W 3+ goals
44%
Eendracht Aalst W 1+ goals
71%
Eendracht Aalst W 2+ goals
36%
Eendracht Aalst W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Genk W (draw refunded)
78%
Eendracht Aalst W (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genk W at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.43 · 102 matches

Eendracht Aalst W away — creates 1.07, concedes 3.08 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genk W attack 1.84 + Eendracht Aalst W defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.46

Eendracht Aalst W attack 1.07 + Genk W defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Genk W scores more
63%
level
18%
Eendracht Aalst W scores more
18%

Genk W at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Genk W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Genk W vs Eendracht Aalst W

Genk W beat Eendracht Aalst W 3-0 in Super League Women on March 5, 2021.

The match was played at Sportcomplex Zwartberg in Genk.