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Genk vs Twente — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Genk
Genk
Preview
16:30
Twente
Twente
8/2/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies
41%
Twente
model favours
37%21%41%

Twente score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
73%
over 2.5 goals
72%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Genk37%
×Draw21%
Twente41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genk
1.85
Twente
1.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

creates per match

Genk
2.83
Twente
2.50

allows per match

Genk
1.42
Twente
0.88

finishing

Genk+0.00on par
Twente+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genk ↓

Twente →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Genk or draw
59%
Genk or Twente
79%
Draw or Twente
63%

Winning margin

Genk wins by 2+
19%
Twente wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Genk 1+ goals
84%
Genk 2+ goals
55%
Genk 3+ goals
28%
Twente 1+ goals
86%
Twente 2+ goals
58%
Twente 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Genk (draw refunded)
47%
Twente (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genk at home — creates 2.83, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

Twente away — creates 2.50, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genk attack 2.83 + Twente defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.85

Twente attack 2.50 + Genk defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Genk scores more
37%
level
21%
Twente scores more
41%

Twente at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Twente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Twente have won 3 in a row
  • Twente have scored in 10 games running
  • Genk score first in only 30% of matches
  • 20% of Twente’s goals come in the first 15 minutes
  • Genk and Twente have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Genk
WLWW
Twente
WWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Genk host Twente

August 2, 2026: Genk take on Twente in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.