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Genk vs Standard Liege — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Genk
Genk
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Standard Liege
Standard Liege
3/10/2024Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 29Cegeka Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Genk51%
×Draw25%
Standard Liege25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genk
1.64
Standard Liege
1.06

Genk creates 55% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 18 away

creates per match

Genk
1.79
Standard Liege
1.05

allows per match

Genk
1.07
Standard Liege
1.49

finishing

Genk-0.47scores less
Standard Liege-0.16scores less

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genk ↓

Standard Liege →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Genk or draw
75%
Genk or Standard Liege
75%
Draw or Standard Liege
49%

Winning margin

Genk wins by 2+
27%
Standard Liege wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Genk 1+ goals
81%
Genk 2+ goals
49%
Genk 3+ goals
23%
Standard Liege 1+ goals
65%
Standard Liege 2+ goals
29%
Standard Liege 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Genk (draw refunded)
67%
Standard Liege (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genk at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.07 · 25 matches

Standard Liege away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.49 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genk attack 1.79 + Standard Liege defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.64

Standard Liege attack 1.05 + Genk defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Genk scores more
51%
level
25%
Standard Liege scores more
25%

Genk at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Genk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Genk vs Standard Liege

Genk beat Standard Liege 1-0 in Jupiler Pro League on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Cegeka Arena in Genk.