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Genk vs FC OSS — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Genk
Genk
Preview
12:00
FC OSS
FC OSS
8/1/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies
72%
Genk
model favours
72%15%13%

FC OSS score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
77%
over 2.5 goals
66%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Genk72%
×Draw15%
FC OSS13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genk
2.95
FC OSS
1.19

Genk creates 148% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

creates per match

Genk
2.69
FC OSS
1.00

allows per match

Genk
1.38
FC OSS
3.20

finishing

Genk+0.00on par
FC OSS+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genk ↓

FC OSS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Genk or draw
87%
Genk or FC OSS
85%
Draw or FC OSS
28%

Winning margin

Genk wins by 2+
52%
FC OSS wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Genk 1+ goals
95%
Genk 2+ goals
79%
Genk 3+ goals
55%
FC OSS 1+ goals
70%
FC OSS 2+ goals
33%
FC OSS 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Genk (draw refunded)
85%
FC OSS (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genk at home — creates 2.69, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

FC OSS away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genk attack 2.69 + FC OSS defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.95

FC OSS attack 1.00 + Genk defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Genk scores more
72%
level
15%
FC OSS scores more
13%

Genk at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Genk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Genk score first in only 29% of matches
  • Both teams score in 73% of FC OSS’s matches
  • Genk and FC OSS have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Genk
LLWLW
OSS
WLLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Genk host FC OSS

August 1, 2026: Genk take on FC OSS in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.