Genk 0–3 Club Brugge KV: Result & Stats

Genk

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Club Brugge KV

3/3/2024

Jupiler Pro League · Round 28Cegeka Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Genk38%

×Draw25%

Club Brugge KV38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GenkExpected goals in this matchClub Brugge KV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

Genk

1.47

Club Brugge KV

1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 27 away

1.79

creates per match

1.86

1.07

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Genk

1.79

Club Brugge KV

1.86

allows per match

Genk

1.07

Club Brugge KV

1.15

-0.47scores less than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Genk-0.47scores less

Club Brugge KV+0.10scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genk ↓

Club Brugge KV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Genk or draw

62%

Genk or Club Brugge KV

75%

Draw or Club Brugge KV

62%

Winning margin

Genk wins by 2+

18%

Club Brugge KV wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Genk 1+ goals

77%

Genk 2+ goals

43%

Genk 3+ goals

18%

Club Brugge KV 1+ goals

77%

Club Brugge KV 2+ goals

43%

Club Brugge KV 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Genk (draw refunded)

50%

Club Brugge KV (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genk at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.07 · 25 matches

Club Brugge KV away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genk attack 1.79 + Club Brugge KV defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.47

Club Brugge KV attack 1.86 + Genk defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Genk scores more

38%

level

25%

Club Brugge KV scores more

38%

Genk at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Genk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff