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Genk vs Anderlecht — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Genk
Genk
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Anderlecht
Anderlecht
12/22/2024Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 19Cegeka Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Genk51%
×Draw23%
Anderlecht26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genk
1.82
Anderlecht
1.22

Genk creates 49% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 23 away

creates per match

Genk
1.77
Anderlecht
1.33

allows per match

Genk
1.11
Anderlecht
1.87

finishing

Genk-0.44scores less
Anderlecht-0.20scores less

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genk ↓

Anderlecht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Genk or draw
74%
Genk or Anderlecht
77%
Draw or Anderlecht
49%

Winning margin

Genk wins by 2+
29%
Anderlecht wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Genk 1+ goals
84%
Genk 2+ goals
54%
Genk 3+ goals
27%
Anderlecht 1+ goals
70%
Anderlecht 2+ goals
34%
Anderlecht 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Genk (draw refunded)
67%
Anderlecht (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genk at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.11 · 24 matches

Anderlecht away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genk attack 1.77 + Anderlecht defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.82

Anderlecht attack 1.33 + Genk defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Genk scores more
51%
level
23%
Anderlecht scores more
26%

Genk at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Genk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jupiler Pro League: Genk 2–0 Anderlecht

Genk beat Anderlecht 2-0 in Jupiler Pro League on December 22, 2024.

The match was played at Cegeka Arena in Genk.