Genk 1–0 Anderlecht: Result & Stats

Genk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Anderlecht

I. Ugbo 87'

8/29/2021

Jupiler Pro League · Round 6Cegeka Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Genk52%

×Draw23%

Anderlecht25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GenkExpected goals in this matchAnderlecht

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.18

Genk

1.80

Anderlecht

1.18

Genk creates 53% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 30 away

1.79

creates per match

1.29

1.07

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Genk

1.79

Anderlecht

1.29

allows per match

Genk

1.07

Anderlecht

1.81

-0.47scores less than expected

finishing

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

Genk-0.47scores less

Anderlecht-0.19scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genk ↓

Anderlecht →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Genk or draw

75%

Genk or Anderlecht

77%

Draw or Anderlecht

48%

Winning margin

Genk wins by 2+

29%

Anderlecht wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Genk 1+ goals

83%

Genk 2+ goals

54%

Genk 3+ goals

27%

Anderlecht 1+ goals

69%

Anderlecht 2+ goals

33%

Anderlecht 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Genk (draw refunded)

67%

Anderlecht (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genk at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.07 · 25 matches

Anderlecht away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.81 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genk attack 1.79 + Anderlecht defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.80

Anderlecht attack 1.29 + Genk defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Genk scores more

52%

level

23%

Anderlecht scores more

25%

Genk at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Genk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

C. Eiting

Genk · M

7.9

Match Events

42'

Benito Raman

46'

C. Kouamé← J. Zirkzee

66'

Daniel Muñoz

66'

Taylor Harwood-Bellis

67'

68'

72'

82'

82'

P. Hrošovský← B. Heynen

84'

Francis Amuzu

85'

I. Thelin← L. Refaelov

85'

M. Ashimeru← A. El Hadj

87'

I. Ugbo↳ K. Thorstvedt

90'

Sergio Gómez

90+1'

M. McKenzie← J. Ito

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GenkAnderlecht

Overview

52%Possession48%

12Total Shots16

3Corners7

9Fouls8

Shots

12Total Shots16

3On Target0

6Off Target9

3Blocked7

8Inside Box9

4Outside Box7

Passing

52%Possession48%

526Total Passes465

446Accurate Passes387

85%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls8

1Yellow Cards5

3Offsides1

Jupiler Pro League: Genk 1–0 Anderlecht

Genk beat Anderlecht 1-0 in Jupiler Pro League on August 29, 2021.

Goals: I. Ugbo (87').

Genk controlled possession (52%) and registered 12 shots to 16.

The match was played at Cegeka Arena in Genk.

Genk vs Anderlecht — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Jupiler Pro League: Genk 1–0 Anderlecht