Génesis 2–2 CD Real Sociedad: Result & Stats

Génesis

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

CD Real Sociedad

8/14/2023

Liga Nacional · Apertura - 3Estadio Municipal Carlos Miranda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Génesis50%

×Draw25%

CD Real Sociedad24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GénesisExpected goals in this matchCD Real Sociedad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.02

Génesis

1.58

CD Real Sociedad

1.02

Génesis creates 55% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 102 away

1.20

creates per match

0.82

1.22

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Génesis

1.20

CD Real Sociedad

0.82

allows per match

Génesis

1.22

CD Real Sociedad

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Génesis+0.00on par

CD Real Sociedad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Génesis ↓

CD Real Sociedad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Génesis or draw

76%

Génesis or CD Real Sociedad

75%

Draw or CD Real Sociedad

50%

Winning margin

Génesis wins by 2+

26%

CD Real Sociedad wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Génesis 1+ goals

79%

Génesis 2+ goals

47%

Génesis 3+ goals

21%

CD Real Sociedad 1+ goals

64%

CD Real Sociedad 2+ goals

27%

CD Real Sociedad 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Génesis (draw refunded)

67%

CD Real Sociedad (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Génesis at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.22 · 64 matches

CD Real Sociedad away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.97 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Génesis attack 1.20 + CD Real Sociedad defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.58

CD Real Sociedad attack 0.82 + Génesis defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Génesis scores more

50%

level

25%

CD Real Sociedad scores more

24%

Génesis at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Génesis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff