General Velásquez 1–2 San Antonio Unido

General Velásquez

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

San Antonio Unido

7/17/2022

Segunda División · Round 13Estadio Municipal de San Vicente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

General Velásquez43%

×Draw27%

San Antonio Unido30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

General VelásquezExpected goals in this matchSan Antonio Unido

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.11

General Velásquez

1.37

San Antonio Unido

1.11

General Velásquez creates 23% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 71 away

1.43

creates per match

1.20

1.03

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

General Velásquez

1.43

San Antonio Unido

1.20

allows per match

General Velásquez

1.03

San Antonio Unido

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

General Velásquez+0.00on par

San Antonio Unido+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Velásquez ↓

San Antonio Unido →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

General Velásquez or draw

70%

General Velásquez or San Antonio Unido

73%

Draw or San Antonio Unido

57%

Winning margin

General Velásquez wins by 2+

20%

San Antonio Unido wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

General Velásquez 1+ goals

75%

General Velásquez 2+ goals

40%

General Velásquez 3+ goals

16%

San Antonio Unido 1+ goals

67%

San Antonio Unido 2+ goals

30%

San Antonio Unido 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

General Velásquez (draw refunded)

58%

San Antonio Unido (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Velásquez at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.03 · 77 matches

San Antonio Unido away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.31 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Velásquez attack 1.43 + San Antonio Unido defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.37

San Antonio Unido attack 1.20 + General Velásquez defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

General Velásquez scores more

43%

level

27%

San Antonio Unido scores more

30%

General Velásquez at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "General Velásquez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff