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General Velásquez vs Deportes Rengo — Segunda División 2020

General Velásquez
General Velásquez
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportes Rengo
Deportes Rengo
7/30/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 17Estadio Municipal Augusto Rodríguez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

General Velásquez49%
×Draw26%
Deportes Rengo25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

General Velásquez
1.52
Deportes Rengo
1.02

General Velásquez creates 49% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 44 away

creates per match

General Velásquez
1.43
Deportes Rengo
1.00

allows per match

General Velásquez
1.03
Deportes Rengo
1.61

finishing

General Velásquez+0.00on par
Deportes Rengo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Velásquez ↓

Deportes Rengo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

General Velásquez or draw
75%
General Velásquez or Deportes Rengo
74%
Draw or Deportes Rengo
51%

Winning margin

General Velásquez wins by 2+
25%
Deportes Rengo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

General Velásquez 1+ goals
78%
General Velásquez 2+ goals
45%
General Velásquez 3+ goals
20%
Deportes Rengo 1+ goals
64%
Deportes Rengo 2+ goals
27%
Deportes Rengo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

General Velásquez (draw refunded)
66%
Deportes Rengo (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Velásquez at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.03 · 77 matches

Deportes Rengo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.61 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Velásquez attack 1.43 + Deportes Rengo defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.52

Deportes Rengo attack 1.00 + General Velásquez defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

General Velásquez scores more
49%
level
26%
Deportes Rengo scores more
25%

General Velásquez at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "General Velásquez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: General Velásquez vs Deportes Rengo

General Velásquez beat Deportes Rengo 1-0 in Segunda División on July 30, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Augusto Rodríguez in San Vicente de Tagua Tagua.