General Diaz 1–2 Nacional Asuncion: Result & Stats

General Diaz

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Nacional Asuncion

2/25/2018

Division Profesional - Apertura · Round 4Estadio General Adrián Jara (Luque)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

General Diaz31%

×Draw27%

Nacional Asuncion42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

General DiazExpected goals in this matchNacional Asuncion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.35

General Diaz

1.13

Nacional Asuncion

1.35

Nacional Asuncion creates 19% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 98 away

1.00

creates per match

1.13

1.58

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

General Diaz

1.00

Nacional Asuncion

1.13

allows per match

General Diaz

1.58

Nacional Asuncion

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

General Diaz+0.00on par

Nacional Asuncion+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Diaz ↓

Nacional Asuncion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

General Diaz or draw

58%

General Diaz or Nacional Asuncion

73%

Draw or Nacional Asuncion

69%

Winning margin

General Diaz wins by 2+

13%

Nacional Asuncion wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

General Diaz 1+ goals

68%

General Diaz 2+ goals

31%

General Diaz 3+ goals

11%

Nacional Asuncion 1+ goals

74%

Nacional Asuncion 2+ goals

39%

Nacional Asuncion 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

General Diaz (draw refunded)

43%

Nacional Asuncion (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Diaz at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.58 · 33 matches

Nacional Asuncion away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.26 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Diaz attack 1.00 + Nacional Asuncion defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.13

Nacional Asuncion attack 1.13 + General Diaz defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

General Diaz scores more

31%

level

27%

Nacional Asuncion scores more

42%

Nacional Asuncion at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Nacional Asuncion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: General Diaz vs Nacional Asuncion

Nacional Asuncion beat General Diaz 2-1 in Division Profesional - Apertura on February 25, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio General Adrián Jara (Luque).

General Diaz vs Nacional Asuncion — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: General Diaz vs Nacional Asuncion