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General Diaz vs Deportivo Capiata — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

General Diaz
General Diaz
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Capiata
Deportivo Capiata
2/3/2018Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Round 1Estadio Luís Alfonso Giagni (Asunción)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

General Diaz43%
×Draw26%
Deportivo Capiata31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

General Diaz
1.48
Deportivo Capiata
1.22

General Diaz creates 21% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 22 away

creates per match

General Diaz
1.00
Deportivo Capiata
0.86

allows per match

General Diaz
1.58
Deportivo Capiata
1.95

finishing

General Diaz+0.00on par
Deportivo Capiata+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Diaz ↓

Deportivo Capiata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

General Diaz or draw
69%
General Diaz or Deportivo Capiata
74%
Draw or Deportivo Capiata
57%

Winning margin

General Diaz wins by 2+
21%
Deportivo Capiata wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

General Diaz 1+ goals
77%
General Diaz 2+ goals
43%
General Diaz 3+ goals
19%
Deportivo Capiata 1+ goals
70%
Deportivo Capiata 2+ goals
34%
Deportivo Capiata 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

General Diaz (draw refunded)
58%
Deportivo Capiata (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Diaz at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.58 · 33 matches

Deportivo Capiata away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.95 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Diaz attack 1.00 + Deportivo Capiata defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.48

Deportivo Capiata attack 0.86 + General Diaz defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

General Diaz scores more
43%
level
26%
Deportivo Capiata scores more
31%

General Diaz at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "General Diaz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: General Diaz vs Deportivo Capiata

General Diaz and Deportivo Capiata drew 1-1 in Division Profesional - Apertura on February 3, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Luís Alfonso Giagni (Asunción).