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General Caballero vs Libertad Asuncion — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

General Caballero
General Caballero
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
3/17/2024Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 10Estadio Leandro Ovelar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

General Caballero24%
×Draw24%
Libertad Asuncion51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

General Caballero
1.06
Libertad Asuncion
1.66

Libertad Asuncion creates 57% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 97 away

creates per match

General Caballero
1.05
Libertad Asuncion
1.84

allows per match

General Caballero
1.48
Libertad Asuncion
1.07

finishing

General Caballero+0.00on par
Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Caballero ↓

Libertad Asuncion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

General Caballero or draw
49%
General Caballero or Libertad Asuncion
76%
Draw or Libertad Asuncion
76%

Winning margin

General Caballero wins by 2+
9%
Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

General Caballero 1+ goals
65%
General Caballero 2+ goals
29%
General Caballero 3+ goals
9%
Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals
81%
Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals
49%
Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

General Caballero (draw refunded)
32%
Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Caballero at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.48 · 44 matches

Libertad Asuncion away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.07 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Caballero attack 1.05 + Libertad Asuncion defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Libertad Asuncion attack 1.84 + General Caballero defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

General Caballero scores more
24%
level
24%
Libertad Asuncion scores more
51%

Libertad Asuncion at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Libertad Asuncion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: General Caballero vs Libertad Asuncion

Libertad Asuncion beat General Caballero 2-0 in Division Profesional - Apertura on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Leandro Ovelar in Doctor Juan León Mallorquín.