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General Caballero vs 3 de Febrero — Division Intermedia 2018

General Caballero
General Caballero
PST
22:00
3 de Febrero
3 de Febrero
7/18/2020Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 18Estadio Leandro Ovelar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

General Caballero51%
×Draw24%
3 de Febrero25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

General Caballero
1.67
3 de Febrero
1.09

General Caballero creates 53% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 78 away

creates per match

General Caballero
2.02
3 de Febrero
1.03

allows per match

General Caballero
1.16
3 de Febrero
1.32

finishing

General Caballero+0.00on par
3 de Febrero+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Caballero ↓

3 de Febrero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

General Caballero or draw
75%
General Caballero or 3 de Febrero
76%
Draw or 3 de Febrero
49%

Winning margin

General Caballero wins by 2+
27%
3 de Febrero wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

General Caballero 1+ goals
81%
General Caballero 2+ goals
50%
General Caballero 3+ goals
23%
3 de Febrero 1+ goals
66%
3 de Febrero 2+ goals
30%
3 de Febrero 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

General Caballero (draw refunded)
67%
3 de Febrero (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Caballero at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.16 · 55 matches

3 de Febrero away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.32 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Caballero attack 2.02 + 3 de Febrero defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.67

3 de Febrero attack 1.03 + General Caballero defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

General Caballero scores more
51%
level
24%
3 de Febrero scores more
25%

General Caballero at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "General Caballero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

General Caballero face 3 de Febrero (Division Intermedia)

Division Intermedia returns with General Caballero hosting 3 de Febrero. Match starts July 18, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

General Caballero host 3 de Febrero at Estadio Leandro Ovelar.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.