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Gendrim vs Garde Nationale — Premier League 2020

Gendrim
Gendrim
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Garde Nationale
Garde Nationale
11/12/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Gendrim33%
×Draw32%
Garde Nationale35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gendrim
0.95
Garde Nationale
0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 64 away

creates per match

Gendrim
0.89
Garde Nationale
0.89

allows per match

Gendrim
1.06
Garde Nationale
1.00

finishing

Gendrim+0.00on par
Garde Nationale+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gendrim ↓

Garde Nationale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Gendrim or draw
65%
Gendrim or Garde Nationale
68%
Draw or Garde Nationale
67%

Winning margin

Gendrim wins by 2+
12%
Garde Nationale wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Gendrim 1+ goals
61%
Gendrim 2+ goals
25%
Gendrim 3+ goals
7%
Garde Nationale 1+ goals
62%
Garde Nationale 2+ goals
26%
Garde Nationale 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Gendrim (draw refunded)
49%
Garde Nationale (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gendrim at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.06 · 54 matches

Garde Nationale away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.00 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gendrim attack 0.89 + Garde Nationale defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Garde Nationale attack 0.89 + Gendrim defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Gendrim scores more
33%
level
32%
Garde Nationale scores more
35%

Garde Nationale at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Garde Nationale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gendrim vs Garde Nationale

Gendrim and Garde Nationale drew 0-0 in Premier League on November 12, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya in Nouakchott.