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GEL vs Linhares — Capixaba B 2027

GEL
GEL
Preview
18:00
Linhares
Linhares
7/25/2026Capixaba BCapixaba B · Round 4
75%
Linhares
model favours
10%15%75%

69% of Linhares’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

0–2
likely score
72%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

GEL10%
×Draw15%
Linhares75%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GEL
0.95
Linhares
2.80

Linhares creates 195% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

creates per match

GEL
0.50
Linhares
2.10

allows per match

GEL
3.50
Linhares
1.40

finishing

GEL+0.00on par
Linhares+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 72Under: 2872%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 58No: 4258%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GEL ↓

Linhares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–17%
0–29%
0–39%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

GEL or draw
25%
GEL or Linhares
85%
Draw or Linhares
90%

Winning margin

GEL wins by 2+
3%
Linhares wins by 2+
54%

Team goals

GEL 1+ goals
61%
GEL 2+ goals
25%
GEL 3+ goals
7%
Linhares 1+ goals
94%
Linhares 2+ goals
76%
Linhares 3+ goals
52%

Draw no bet

GEL (draw refunded)
12%
Linhares (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GEL at home — creates 0.50, concedes 3.50 · 8 matches

Linhares away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GEL attack 0.50 + Linhares defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.95

Linhares attack 2.10 + GEL defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

GEL scores more
10%
level
15%
Linhares scores more
75%

Linhares at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Linhares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
GEL
DDLLL
Linhares
WWLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: GEL host Linhares

July 25, 2026: GEL take on Linhares in Capixaba B. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.