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Gebenbach vs Kornburg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Gebenbach
Gebenbach
Preview
13:00
Kornburg
Kornburg
4/3/2027Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 26
Big match
46%
Gebenbach
model favours
46%22%32%

Gebenbach win just 36% against the top half (vs 63% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
67%
over 2.5 goals
67%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Gebenbach46%
×Draw22%
Kornburg32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gebenbach
1.92
Kornburg
1.56

Gebenbach creates 23% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

creates per match

Gebenbach
2.09
Kornburg
1.44

allows per match

Gebenbach
1.69
Kornburg
1.76

finishing

Gebenbach+0.00on par
Kornburg+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gebenbach ↓

Kornburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Gebenbach or draw
68%
Gebenbach or Kornburg
78%
Draw or Kornburg
54%

Winning margin

Gebenbach wins by 2+
26%
Kornburg wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Gebenbach 1+ goals
85%
Gebenbach 2+ goals
57%
Gebenbach 3+ goals
30%
Kornburg 1+ goals
79%
Kornburg 2+ goals
46%
Kornburg 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Gebenbach (draw refunded)
59%
Kornburg (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gebenbach at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.69 · 68 matches

Kornburg away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.76 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gebenbach attack 2.09 + Kornburg defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.92

Kornburg attack 1.44 + Gebenbach defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Gebenbach scores more
46%
level
22%
Kornburg scores more
32%

Gebenbach at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Gebenbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Kornburg win just 22% against the top half (vs 54% against the bottom)
  • Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Gebenbach
WWWW
Kornburg
LLLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gebenbach vs Kornburg — Match Preview

Gebenbach face Kornburg on April 3, 2027 in this Oberliga - Bayern Nord fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.