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Gebenbach vs Jahn Regensburg II — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Gebenbach
Gebenbach
Preview
13:00
Jahn Regensburg II
Jahn Regensburg II
10/17/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 15
Big match
48%
Gebenbach
model favours
48%22%31%

Gebenbach win just 36% against the top half (vs 63% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
69%
over 2.5 goals
68%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Gebenbach48%
×Draw22%
Jahn Regensburg II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gebenbach
1.99
Jahn Regensburg II
1.57

Gebenbach creates 27% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

creates per match

Gebenbach
2.09
Jahn Regensburg II
1.46

allows per match

Gebenbach
1.69
Jahn Regensburg II
1.90

finishing

Gebenbach+0.00on par
Jahn Regensburg II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gebenbach ↓

Jahn Regensburg II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Gebenbach or draw
69%
Gebenbach or Jahn Regensburg II
78%
Draw or Jahn Regensburg II
52%

Winning margin

Gebenbach wins by 2+
27%
Jahn Regensburg II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Gebenbach 1+ goals
86%
Gebenbach 2+ goals
59%
Gebenbach 3+ goals
32%
Jahn Regensburg II 1+ goals
79%
Jahn Regensburg II 2+ goals
46%
Jahn Regensburg II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Gebenbach (draw refunded)
61%
Jahn Regensburg II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gebenbach at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.69 · 68 matches

Jahn Regensburg II away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.90 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gebenbach attack 2.09 + Jahn Regensburg II defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.99

Jahn Regensburg II attack 1.46 + Gebenbach defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Gebenbach scores more
48%
level
22%
Jahn Regensburg II scores more
31%

Gebenbach at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Gebenbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 meetings
  • Their last 8 meetings averaged 3.8 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Gebenbach
WWWW
II
DLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gebenbach vs Jahn Regensburg II — Match Preview

Gebenbach face Jahn Regensburg II on October 17, 2026 in this Oberliga - Bayern Nord fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.