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Gebenbach vs DJK Bamberg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Gebenbach
Gebenbach
Preview
17:00
DJK Bamberg
DJK Bamberg
8/18/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 6
56%
Gebenbach
model favours
56%20%23%

DJK Bamberg win just 17% against the top half (vs 44% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
69%
over 2.5 goals
67%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Gebenbach56%
×Draw20%
DJK Bamberg23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gebenbach
2.22
DJK Bamberg
1.38

Gebenbach creates 61% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

Gebenbach
2.09
DJK Bamberg
1.06

allows per match

Gebenbach
1.69
DJK Bamberg
2.35

finishing

Gebenbach+0.00on par
DJK Bamberg+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gebenbach ↓

DJK Bamberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Gebenbach or draw
77%
Gebenbach or DJK Bamberg
80%
Draw or DJK Bamberg
44%

Winning margin

Gebenbach wins by 2+
35%
DJK Bamberg wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Gebenbach 1+ goals
89%
Gebenbach 2+ goals
65%
Gebenbach 3+ goals
38%
DJK Bamberg 1+ goals
75%
DJK Bamberg 2+ goals
40%
DJK Bamberg 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Gebenbach (draw refunded)
71%
DJK Bamberg (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gebenbach at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.69 · 68 matches

DJK Bamberg away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gebenbach attack 2.09 + DJK Bamberg defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.22

DJK Bamberg attack 1.06 + Gebenbach defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Gebenbach scores more
56%
level
20%
DJK Bamberg scores more
23%

Gebenbach at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Gebenbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Gebenbach
WWWW
Bamberg
LDLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gebenbach face DJK Bamberg (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)

Oberliga - Bayern Nord returns with Gebenbach hosting DJK Bamberg. Match starts August 18, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.