Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gebenbach vs ASV Neumarkt — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Gebenbach
Gebenbach
Preview
17:00
ASV Neumarkt
ASV Neumarkt
8/28/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 8
Big match
45%
Gebenbach
model favours
45%22%33%

Gebenbach have won 6 of the last 8 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
69%
over 2.5 goals
69%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Gebenbach45%
×Draw22%
ASV Neumarkt33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gebenbach
1.93
ASV Neumarkt
1.64

Gebenbach creates 18% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 69 away

creates per match

Gebenbach
2.09
ASV Neumarkt
1.58

allows per match

Gebenbach
1.69
ASV Neumarkt
1.77

finishing

Gebenbach+0.00on par
ASV Neumarkt+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gebenbach ↓

ASV Neumarkt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Gebenbach or draw
67%
Gebenbach or ASV Neumarkt
78%
Draw or ASV Neumarkt
55%

Winning margin

Gebenbach wins by 2+
25%
ASV Neumarkt wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Gebenbach 1+ goals
85%
Gebenbach 2+ goals
57%
Gebenbach 3+ goals
30%
ASV Neumarkt 1+ goals
81%
ASV Neumarkt 2+ goals
49%
ASV Neumarkt 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Gebenbach (draw refunded)
57%
ASV Neumarkt (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gebenbach at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.69 · 68 matches

ASV Neumarkt away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.77 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gebenbach attack 2.09 + ASV Neumarkt defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.93

ASV Neumarkt attack 1.58 + Gebenbach defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Gebenbach scores more
45%
level
22%
ASV Neumarkt scores more
33%

Gebenbach at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Gebenbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Top-of-the-table clash — Gebenbach 4 vs ASV Neumarkt 3
  • Gebenbach win just 36% against the top half (vs 63% against the bottom)
  • Their last 8 meetings averaged 4.4 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Gebenbach
WWWW
Neumarkt
LLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gebenbach face ASV Neumarkt (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)

Oberliga - Bayern Nord returns with Gebenbach hosting ASV Neumarkt. Match starts August 28, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.