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GBK vs VIFK — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

GBK
GBK
FT
8 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
VIFK
VIFK
8/7/2020Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 8Kokkolan Keskuskenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

GBK52%
×Draw21%
VIFK27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GBK
2.07
VIFK
1.45

GBK creates 43% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 72 away

creates per match

GBK
2.17
VIFK
1.36

allows per match

GBK
1.53
VIFK
1.97

finishing

GBK+0.00on par
VIFK+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GBK ↓

VIFK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

GBK or draw
73%
GBK or VIFK
79%
Draw or VIFK
48%

Winning margin

GBK wins by 2+
30%
VIFK wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

GBK 1+ goals
87%
GBK 2+ goals
61%
GBK 3+ goals
34%
VIFK 1+ goals
77%
VIFK 2+ goals
42%
VIFK 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

GBK (draw refunded)
66%
VIFK (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GBK at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.53 · 88 matches

VIFK away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.97 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GBK attack 2.17 + VIFK defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.07

VIFK attack 1.36 + GBK defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

GBK scores more
52%
level
21%
VIFK scores more
27%

GBK at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "GBK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko C: GBK 8–0 VIFK

GBK beat VIFK 8-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on August 7, 2020.

The match was played at Kokkolan Keskuskenttä in Kokkola.