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GBK vs JS Hercules — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

GBK
GBK
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
JS Hercules
JS Hercules
9/22/2019Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Round 20Kokkolan Keskuskenttä (Kokkola)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

GBK50%
×Draw21%
JS Hercules29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GBK
2.15
JS Hercules
1.60

GBK creates 34% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 88 away

creates per match

GBK
2.17
JS Hercules
1.68

allows per match

GBK
1.53
JS Hercules
2.13

finishing

GBK+0.00on par
JS Hercules+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GBK ↓

JS Hercules →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

GBK or draw
71%
GBK or JS Hercules
79%
Draw or JS Hercules
50%

Winning margin

GBK wins by 2+
30%
JS Hercules wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

GBK 1+ goals
88%
GBK 2+ goals
63%
GBK 3+ goals
36%
JS Hercules 1+ goals
80%
JS Hercules 2+ goals
47%
JS Hercules 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

GBK (draw refunded)
63%
JS Hercules (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GBK at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.53 · 88 matches

JS Hercules away — creates 1.68, concedes 2.13 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GBK attack 2.17 + JS Hercules defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.15

JS Hercules attack 1.68 + GBK defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

GBK scores more
50%
level
21%
JS Hercules scores more
29%

GBK at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "GBK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GBK vs JS Hercules

GBK beat JS Hercules 3-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at Kokkolan Keskuskenttä (Kokkola).