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Garliava vs Dainava — 1 Lyga 2026

Garliava
Garliava
Preview
10:00
Dainava
Dainava
10/3/20261 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 16
41%
Dainava
model favours
32%26%41%

Dainava are unbeaten in 6 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Garliava32%
×Draw26%
Dainava41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Garliava
1.19
Dainava
1.39

Dainava creates 17% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 45 away

creates per match

Garliava
1.26
Dainava
1.53

allows per match

Garliava
1.25
Dainava
1.13

finishing

Garliava+0.00on par
Dainava+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 52Over: 4852%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 52No: 4852%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garliava ↓

Dainava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Garliava or draw
59%
Garliava or Dainava
74%
Draw or Dainava
68%

Winning margin

Garliava wins by 2+
13%
Dainava wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Garliava 1+ goals
70%
Garliava 2+ goals
33%
Garliava 3+ goals
12%
Dainava 1+ goals
75%
Dainava 2+ goals
40%
Dainava 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Garliava (draw refunded)
44%
Dainava (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garliava at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.25 · 53 matches

Dainava away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.13 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garliava attack 1.26 + Dainava defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Dainava attack 1.53 + Garliava defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Garliava scores more
32%
level
26%
Dainava scores more
41%

Dainava at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dainava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Dainava have scored in 11 games running
  • Garliava score first in only 27% of matches
  • Dainava have won 3 of the last 3 meetings
  • 50% of Dainava’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • 67% of Dainava’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Dainava win just 52% against the top half (vs 83% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Garliava
LLWLL
Dainava
WDWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Garliava face Dainava (1 Lyga)

1 Lyga returns with Garliava hosting Dainava. Match starts October 3, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.