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Gareji vs Kolkheti Poti — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Gareji
Gareji
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kolkheti Poti
Kolkheti Poti
12/2/2023Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 36Sagarejos Tsentraluri Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Gareji59%
×Draw22%
Kolkheti Poti19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gareji
1.96
Kolkheti Poti
1.01

Gareji creates 94% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 46 away

creates per match

Gareji
2.20
Kolkheti Poti
1.17

allows per match

Gareji
0.86
Kolkheti Poti
1.72

finishing

Gareji+0.00on par
Kolkheti Poti+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gareji ↓

Kolkheti Poti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Gareji or draw
81%
Gareji or Kolkheti Poti
78%
Draw or Kolkheti Poti
41%

Winning margin

Gareji wins by 2+
35%
Kolkheti Poti wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gareji 1+ goals
86%
Gareji 2+ goals
58%
Gareji 3+ goals
31%
Kolkheti Poti 1+ goals
64%
Kolkheti Poti 2+ goals
27%
Kolkheti Poti 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Gareji (draw refunded)
76%
Kolkheti Poti (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gareji at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.86 · 74 matches

Kolkheti Poti away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.72 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gareji attack 2.20 + Kolkheti Poti defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.96

Kolkheti Poti attack 1.17 + Gareji defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Gareji scores more
59%
level
22%
Kolkheti Poti scores more
19%

Gareji at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Gareji will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gareji vs Kolkheti Poti

Gareji and Kolkheti Poti drew 1-1 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Sagarejos Tsentraluri Stadioni in Sagarejo.