Garching vs Viktoria Aschaffenburg

Garching

PST

00:00

Viktoria Aschaffenburg

4/18/2020

Regionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 29Stadion am See

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Garching29%

×Draw25%

Viktoria Aschaffenburg46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GarchingExpected goals in this matchViktoria Aschaffenburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.59

Garching

1.20

Viktoria Aschaffenburg

1.59

Viktoria Aschaffenburg creates 33% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 90 away

0.78

creates per match

1.18

2.00

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Garching

0.78

Viktoria Aschaffenburg

1.18

allows per match

Garching

2.00

Viktoria Aschaffenburg

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Garching+0.00on par

Viktoria Aschaffenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garching ↓

Viktoria Aschaffenburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Garching or draw

54%

Garching or Viktoria Aschaffenburg

75%

Draw or Viktoria Aschaffenburg

71%

Winning margin

Garching wins by 2+

12%

Viktoria Aschaffenburg wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Garching 1+ goals

70%

Garching 2+ goals

34%

Garching 3+ goals

12%

Viktoria Aschaffenburg 1+ goals

80%

Viktoria Aschaffenburg 2+ goals

47%

Viktoria Aschaffenburg 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Garching (draw refunded)

38%

Viktoria Aschaffenburg (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garching at home — creates 0.78, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

Viktoria Aschaffenburg away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.62 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garching attack 0.78 + Viktoria Aschaffenburg defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.20

Viktoria Aschaffenburg attack 1.18 + Garching defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Garching scores more

29%

level

25%

Viktoria Aschaffenburg scores more

46%

Viktoria Aschaffenburg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Viktoria Aschaffenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff