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Gamba Osaka vs Tokyo Verdy — J1 League 2018

Gamba Osaka
Gamba Osaka
Preview
07:00
Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
12/12/2026J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 19Panasonic Stadium Suita
Big match
44%
Gamba Osaka
model favours
44%28%29%

Tokyo Verdy score first in only 10% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Gamba Osaka44%
×Draw28%
Tokyo Verdy29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gamba Osaka
1.33
Tokyo Verdy
1.02

Gamba Osaka creates 30% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 46 away

creates per match

Gamba Osaka
1.36
Tokyo Verdy
0.85

allows per match

Gamba Osaka
1.19
Tokyo Verdy
1.30

finishing

Gamba Osaka+0.00on par
Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gamba Osaka ↓

Tokyo Verdy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Gamba Osaka or draw
71%
Gamba Osaka or Tokyo Verdy
72%
Draw or Tokyo Verdy
56%

Winning margin

Gamba Osaka wins by 2+
20%
Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Gamba Osaka 1+ goals
74%
Gamba Osaka 2+ goals
38%
Gamba Osaka 3+ goals
15%
Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
64%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
27%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Gamba Osaka (draw refunded)
60%
Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gamba Osaka at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.19 · 149 matches

Tokyo Verdy away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.30 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gamba Osaka attack 1.36 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.33

Tokyo Verdy attack 0.85 + Gamba Osaka defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Gamba Osaka scores more
44%
level
28%
Tokyo Verdy scores more
29%

Gamba Osaka at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gamba Osaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Gamba Osaka score first in only 25% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Gamba Osaka
Defensively solid
Tokyo Verdy
Defensively solid
51%Possession47%
80%Pass accuracy76%
12.4Shots10.2
1.18xGBiggest gap0.88
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Gamba OsakaTokyo Verdy

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

3
Gamba Osaka
3
Draws
0
Tokyo Verdy
Avg goals: 2.7BTTS: 67%
4–21–14–11–01–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Osaka
WLWDW
Verdy
LDLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gamba Osaka face Tokyo Verdy (J1 League)

J1 League returns with Gamba Osaka hosting Tokyo Verdy. Match starts December 12, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Gamba Osaka host Tokyo Verdy at Panasonic Stadium Suita.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.