Gamba Osaka vs Shimizu S-pulse

Gamba Osaka

Preview

10:00

Shimizu S-pulse

5/29/2027

J1 League · Round 37Panasonic Stadium Suita

Big match

47%

Gamba Osaka

model favours

47%26%27%

Shimizu S-pulse score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

51%

under 2.5 goals

52%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Gamba Osaka47%

×Draw26%

Shimizu S-pulse27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gamba OsakaExpected goals in this matchShimizu S-pulse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.10

Gamba Osaka

1.53

Shimizu S-pulse

1.10

Gamba Osaka creates 39% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 27 away

1.69

creates per match

0.93

1.28

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Gamba Osaka

1.69

Shimizu S-pulse

0.93

allows per match

Gamba Osaka

1.28

Shimizu S-pulse

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gamba Osaka+0.00on par

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gamba Osaka ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Gamba Osaka or draw

73%

Gamba Osaka or Shimizu S-pulse

74%

Draw or Shimizu S-pulse

53%

Winning margin

Gamba Osaka wins by 2+

24%

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Gamba Osaka 1+ goals

78%

Gamba Osaka 2+ goals

45%

Gamba Osaka 3+ goals

20%

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals

67%

Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals

30%

Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Gamba Osaka (draw refunded)

63%

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gamba Osaka at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.28 · 29 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.37 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gamba Osaka attack 1.69 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.53

Shimizu S-pulse attack 0.93 + Gamba Osaka defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Gamba Osaka scores more

47%

level

26%

Shimizu S-pulse scores more

27%

Gamba Osaka at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Gamba Osaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Gamba Osaka score first in only 25% of matches
Shimizu S-pulse fall short of their xG (0.7 vs 1.3 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Gamba Osaka

Defensively solid

Shimizu S-pulse

Balanced

54%Possession50%

79%Pass accuracy80%

12.4ShotsBiggest gap14.2

1.15xG1.29

Gamba OsakaShimizu S-pulse

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2

Gamba Osaka

2

Draws

1

Shimizu S-pulse

Avg goals: 2BTTS: 40%

2–12–20–01–00–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Osaka

WLWDW

S-pulse

WLDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff