Galway United 2–1 Wexford: Result & Stats

Galway United

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Wexford

D. Hurley 37'

S. Walsh 7'

J. Moylan 41'

10/15/2021

First Division · Round 26Eamonn Deacy Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Galway United54%

×Draw23%

Wexford23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Galway UnitedExpected goals in this matchWexford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.07

Galway United

1.79

Wexford

1.07

Galway United creates 67% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 118 away

1.85

creates per match

1.19

0.95

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Galway United

1.85

Wexford

1.19

allows per match

Galway United

0.95

Wexford

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Galway United+0.00on par

Wexford+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galway United ↓

Wexford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Galway United or draw

77%

Galway United or Wexford

77%

Draw or Wexford

46%

Winning margin

Galway United wins by 2+

30%

Wexford wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Galway United 1+ goals

83%

Galway United 2+ goals

53%

Galway United 3+ goals

26%

Wexford 1+ goals

66%

Wexford 2+ goals

29%

Wexford 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Galway United (draw refunded)

71%

Wexford (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galway United at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.95 · 75 matches

Wexford away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.72 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galway United attack 1.85 + Wexford defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.79

Wexford attack 1.19 + Galway United defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Galway United scores more

54%

level

23%

Wexford scores more

23%

Galway United at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Galway United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

S. Walsh

18'

J. Doherty

21'

26'

37'

41'

52'

57'

65'

E. Farrell← K. Fitzsimons

66'

67'

73'

77'

77'

82'

C. Ubaezuonu← S. Doherty

82'

86'

90'

90+5'

Galway

Wexford

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Caulfield

57'▲J. Gorman←▼D. Hurley

77'▲A. Murphy←▼S. Walsh

77'▲C. O’Dea←▼G. Boylan

82'▲C. Ubaezuonu←▼S. Doherty

82'▲M. Place←▼W. Waweru

Galway United substitutes

GormanMurphyO’DeaUbaezuonuPlaceKellyO'SheaDennison

Manager: I. Ryan

65'▲E. Farrell←▼K. Fitzsimons

86'▲A. Yousif←▼K. McEvoy

Wexford substitutes

FarrellYousifFarrellPorterScanlonLeonardMartin

Match Recap: Galway United vs Wexford

Galway United beat Wexford 2-1 in First Division on October 15, 2021.

Goals: S. Walsh (7'), D. Hurley (37'), J. Moylan (41').

The match was played at Eamonn Deacy Park in Galway.

Galway United vs Wexford — First Division 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Galway United vs Wexford