Galway United 0–1 St Patrick's Athl.

Galway United

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

St Patrick's Athl.

2/16/2024

Premier Division · Round 1Eamonn Deacy Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Galway United38%

×Draw28%

St Patrick's Athl.35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Galway UnitedExpected goals in this matchSt Patrick's Athl.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.17

Galway United

1.23

St Patrick's Athl.

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 129 away

1.26

creates per match

1.19

1.15

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Galway United

1.26

St Patrick's Athl.

1.19

allows per match

Galway United

1.15

St Patrick's Athl.

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Galway United+0.00on par

St Patrick's Athl.+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galway United ↓

St Patrick's Athl. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Galway United or draw

65%

Galway United or St Patrick's Athl.

72%

Draw or St Patrick's Athl.

62%

Winning margin

Galway United wins by 2+

16%

St Patrick's Athl. wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Galway United 1+ goals

71%

Galway United 2+ goals

35%

Galway United 3+ goals

13%

St Patrick's Athl. 1+ goals

69%

St Patrick's Athl. 2+ goals

33%

St Patrick's Athl. 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Galway United (draw refunded)

52%

St Patrick's Athl. (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galway United at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.15 · 47 matches

St Patrick's Athl. away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.21 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galway United attack 1.26 + St Patrick's Athl. defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.19 + Galway United defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Galway United scores more

38%

level

28%

St Patrick's Athl. scores more

35%

Galway United at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Galway United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff