Galway United 1–0 Shelbourne: Result & Stats

Galway United

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Shelbourne

J. Keohane 2'

9/20/2024

Premier Division · Round 31Eamonn Deacy Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Galway United41%

×Draw25%

Shelbourne33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Galway UnitedExpected goals in this matchShelbourne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.31

Galway United

1.49

Shelbourne

1.31

Galway United creates 14% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.53

creates per match

1.39

1.24

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Galway United

1.53

Shelbourne

1.39

allows per match

Galway United

1.24

Shelbourne

1.45

-0.73scores less than expected

finishing

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

Galway United-0.73scores less

Shelbourne+0.21scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galway United ↓

Shelbourne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Galway United or draw

67%

Galway United or Shelbourne

75%

Draw or Shelbourne

59%

Winning margin

Galway United wins by 2+

20%

Shelbourne wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Galway United 1+ goals

77%

Galway United 2+ goals

44%

Galway United 3+ goals

19%

Shelbourne 1+ goals

73%

Shelbourne 2+ goals

38%

Shelbourne 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Galway United (draw refunded)

55%

Shelbourne (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galway United at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.24 · 5 matches

Shelbourne away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.45 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galway United attack 1.53 + Shelbourne defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.49

Shelbourne attack 1.39 + Galway United defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Galway United scores more

41%

level

25%

Shelbourne scores more

33%

Galway United at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Galway United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

J. Keohane

Galway United · M

7.7

Match Events

2'

J. Keohane↳ S. Walsh

21'

Stephen Walsh

60'

Shane Griffin

61'

H. Wood← M. Coyle

61'

K. Ledwidge← S. Griffin

68'

S. Boyd← A. OBrien

68'

L. Burt← A. Coote

69'

Paddy Barrett

70'

D. Hurley← V. Borden

70'

B. Burns← E. McCarthy

72'

77'

81'

87'

88'

K. O'Sullivan← S. Walsh

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GalwayShelbourne

Overview

32%Possession68%

18Total Shots15

4Corners4

9Fouls12

Shots

18Total Shots15

5On Target5

8Off Target6

5Blocked4

9Inside Box7

9Outside Box8

Passing

32%Possession68%

245Total Passes558

157Accurate Passes455

64%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls12

1Yellow Cards4

0Offsides1