Galway United 0–0 Shelbourne: Result & Stats

Galway United

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Shelbourne

3/26/2021

First Division · Round 1Eamonn Deacy Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Galway United38%

×Draw26%

Shelbourne36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Galway UnitedExpected goals in this matchShelbourne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.29

Galway United

1.34

Shelbourne

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 25 away

1.85

creates per match

1.64

0.95

allows per match

0.84

creates per match

Galway United

1.85

Shelbourne

1.64

allows per match

Galway United

0.95

Shelbourne

0.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Galway United+0.00on par

Shelbourne+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galway United ↓

Shelbourne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Galway United or draw

64%

Galway United or Shelbourne

74%

Draw or Shelbourne

62%

Winning margin

Galway United wins by 2+

17%

Shelbourne wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Galway United 1+ goals

74%

Galway United 2+ goals

39%

Galway United 3+ goals

15%

Shelbourne 1+ goals

72%

Shelbourne 2+ goals

37%

Shelbourne 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Galway United (draw refunded)

52%

Shelbourne (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galway United at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.95 · 75 matches

Shelbourne away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.84 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galway United attack 1.85 + Shelbourne defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.34

Shelbourne attack 1.64 + Galway United defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Galway United scores more

38%

level

26%

Shelbourne scores more

36%

Galway United at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Galway United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

24'

30'

41'

41'

41'

46'

M. O’Connor← Y. Mahdy

61'

S. Doherty← M. Rowe

61'

B. McManus← R. Brennan

83'

C. Kelly← S. Walsh

85'

S. Farrell← G. Poynton

88'

M. O'Connor

90'

W. Waweru← D. Hurley

Galway

Shelbourne

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Caulfield

61'▲S. Doherty←▼M. Rowe

83'▲C. Kelly←▼S. Walsh

90'▲W. Waweru←▼D. Hurley

Galway United substitutes

DohertyKellyWaweruHorganBrouderHorganPlaceUbaezuonu

Manager: I. Morris

46'▲M. O’Connor←▼Y. Mahdy

61'▲B. McManus←▼R. Brennan

85'▲S. Farrell←▼G. Poynton

Shelbourne substitutes

O’ConnorMcManusFarrellCetinerFernandesBrunaBradyRooneyToure