Galway United 2–5 Shelbourne: Result & Stats

Galway United

FT

2 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Shelbourne

M. Place 73'

E. Curran 52'

A. Dobbs 90+1'

D. Rooney 84', 33'

R. Brennan 79'

C. Kilduff 71'

8/28/2020

FAI Cup · 2nd RoundEamonn Deacy Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Galway United53%

×Draw21%

Shelbourne26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Galway UnitedExpected goals in this matchShelbourne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

1.41

Galway United

2.07

Shelbourne

1.41

Galway United creates 47% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 13 away

2.60

creates per match

1.62

1.20

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Galway United

2.60

Shelbourne

1.62

allows per match

Galway United

1.20

Shelbourne

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Galway United+0.00on par

Shelbourne+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galway United ↓

Shelbourne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Galway United or draw

74%

Galway United or Shelbourne

79%

Draw or Shelbourne

47%

Winning margin

Galway United wins by 2+

31%

Shelbourne wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Galway United 1+ goals

87%

Galway United 2+ goals

61%

Galway United 3+ goals

34%

Shelbourne 1+ goals

76%

Shelbourne 2+ goals

41%

Shelbourne 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Galway United (draw refunded)

67%

Shelbourne (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galway United at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Shelbourne away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galway United attack 2.60 + Shelbourne defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 2.07

Shelbourne attack 1.62 + Galway United defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Galway United scores more

53%

level

21%

Shelbourne scores more

26%

Galway United at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Galway United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

46'

52'

55'

67'

V. Faherty← E. Curran

71'

C. Kilduff

73'

M. Place

75'

C. Ubaezuonu← M. Place

79'

R. Brennan

83'

M. Ludden← T. Parthoens

84'

85'

85'

90'

90'

K. Moore← D. Fernandes

90+1'

A. Dobbs

Galway

Shelbourne

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Curran

⚽

▼

Place

Manager: J. Caulfield

46'▲C. Barry←▼D. Higgins

67'▲V. Faherty←▼E. Curran

75'▲C. Ubaezuonu←▼M. Place

83'▲M. Ludden←▼T. Parthoens

Galway United substitutes

BarryFahertyUbaezuonuLuddenLynchHorganChristopher

Manager: I. Morris

55'▲S. Quinn←▼M. Byrne

85'▲A. Friel←▼G. Poynton

85'▲J. Kabia←▼R. Brennan

90'▲A. Dobbs←▼C. Kilduff

90'▲K. Moore←▼D. Fernandes

Shelbourne substitutes

QuinnFrielKabiaDobbsMooreBradyBrennan

FAI Cup: Galway United 2–5 Shelbourne

Shelbourne beat Galway United 5-2 in FAI Cup on August 28, 2020.

Goals: D. Rooney (33', 84'), E. Curran (52'), C. Kilduff (71'), M. Place (73'), R. Brennan (79'), A. Dobbs (90+1').

The match was played at Eamonn Deacy Park in Galway.

Galway United vs Shelbourne — FAI Cup 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

FAI Cup: Galway United 2–5 Shelbourne