Galway United 2–3 Derry City: Result & Stats

Galway United

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Derry City

V. Borden 90'

P. Hickey 43'

G. Whyte 90'

R. Benson 47'

D. Mullen 16'

4/18/2025

Premier Division · Round 10Eamonn Deacy Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Galway United38%

×Draw27%

Derry City36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Galway UnitedExpected goals in this matchDerry City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.27

Galway United

1.31

Derry City

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 31 away

1.43

creates per match

1.10

1.43

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Galway United

1.43

Derry City

1.10

allows per match

Galway United

1.43

Derry City

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Galway United+0.00on par

Derry City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galway United ↓

Derry City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Galway United or draw

64%

Galway United or Derry City

73%

Draw or Derry City

62%

Winning margin

Galway United wins by 2+

17%

Derry City wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Galway United 1+ goals

73%

Galway United 2+ goals

38%

Galway United 3+ goals

14%

Derry City 1+ goals

72%

Derry City 2+ goals

36%

Derry City 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Galway United (draw refunded)

51%

Derry City (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galway United at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

Derry City away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.19 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galway United attack 1.43 + Derry City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.31

Derry City attack 1.10 + Galway United defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Galway United scores more

38%

level

27%

Derry City scores more

36%

Galway United at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Galway United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

P. Hickey

Galway United · F

7.6

Match Events

16'

20'

37'

38'

43'

47'

49'

49'

51'

57'

58'

68'

73'

75'

S. Walsh← M. Dyer

75'

D. Hurley← B. Burns

76'

H. Cann← R. Boyce

79'

Stephen Walsh

81'

Sean Patton

85'

S. Kerrigan← R. Slevin

85'

C. Tollett← J. Keohane

85'

P. McMullan← D. Thomas

90'

G. Whyte↳ P. McMullan

90'

V. Borden

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GalwayDerry

Overview

43%Possession57%

15Total Shots15

4Corners4

18Fouls11

Shots

15Total Shots15

5On Target7

6Off Target2

4Blocked6

9Inside Box9

6Outside Box6

Passing

43%Possession57%

288Total Passes395

156Accurate Passes267

54%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls11

6Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

3Offsides3