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Galanta vs Rača — 3. liga - West 2020

Galanta
Galanta
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Rača
Rača
11/4/20233. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 14Futbalový štadión FC Slovan Galanta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Galanta53%
×Draw26%
Rača22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Galanta
1.54
Rača
0.88

Galanta creates 75% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 46 away

creates per match

Galanta
1.72
Rača
0.83

allows per match

Galanta
0.92
Rača
1.37

finishing

Galanta+0.00on par
Rača+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galanta ↓

Rača →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Galanta or draw
78%
Galanta or Rača
74%
Draw or Rača
47%

Winning margin

Galanta wins by 2+
27%
Rača wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Galanta 1+ goals
79%
Galanta 2+ goals
45%
Galanta 3+ goals
20%
Rača 1+ goals
59%
Rača 2+ goals
22%
Rača 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Galanta (draw refunded)
71%
Rača (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galanta at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.92 · 85 matches

Rača away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.37 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galanta attack 1.72 + Rača defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.54

Rača attack 0.83 + Galanta defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Galanta scores more
53%
level
26%
Rača scores more
22%

Galanta at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Galanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Galanta 2–2 Rača

Galanta and Rača drew 2-2 in 3. liga - West on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión FC Slovan Galanta in Galanta.