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Gagra vs Shevardeni 1906 — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Gagra
Gagra
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Shevardeni 1906
Shevardeni 1906
7/13/2020Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 3Mukhianis Sportuli Kompleksi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Gagra57%
×Draw23%
Shevardeni 190619%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gagra
1.75
Shevardeni 1906
0.90

Gagra creates 94% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 48 away

creates per match

Gagra
1.79
Shevardeni 1906
1.13

allows per match

Gagra
0.67
Shevardeni 1906
1.71

finishing

Gagra+0.00on par
Shevardeni 1906+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gagra ↓

Shevardeni 1906 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Gagra or draw
81%
Gagra or Shevardeni 1906
77%
Draw or Shevardeni 1906
43%

Winning margin

Gagra wins by 2+
32%
Shevardeni 1906 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Gagra 1+ goals
83%
Gagra 2+ goals
52%
Gagra 3+ goals
25%
Shevardeni 1906 1+ goals
59%
Shevardeni 1906 2+ goals
23%
Shevardeni 1906 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Gagra (draw refunded)
75%
Shevardeni 1906 (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gagra at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.67 · 42 matches

Shevardeni 1906 away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.71 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gagra attack 1.79 + Shevardeni 1906 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.75

Shevardeni 1906 attack 1.13 + Gagra defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Gagra scores more
57%
level
23%
Shevardeni 1906 scores more
19%

Gagra at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Gagra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga 2: Gagra 2–3 Shevardeni 1906

Shevardeni 1906 beat Gagra 3-2 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on July 13, 2020.

The match was played at Mukhianis Sportuli Kompleksi in Tbilisi.