Gagra 2–1 Saburtalo: Result & Stats | Erovnuli Liga

Gagra

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Saburtalo

11/11/2023

Erovnuli Liga · Round 33David Petriashvili Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Gagra31%

×Draw25%

Saburtalo44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GagraExpected goals in this matchSaburtalo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.54

Gagra

1.25

Saburtalo

1.54

Saburtalo creates 23% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 126 away

1.18

creates per match

1.63

1.46

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Gagra

1.18

Saburtalo

1.63

allows per match

Gagra

1.46

Saburtalo

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gagra+0.00on par

Saburtalo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gagra ↓

Saburtalo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Gagra or draw

56%

Gagra or Saburtalo

75%

Draw or Saburtalo

69%

Winning margin

Gagra wins by 2+

13%

Saburtalo wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Gagra 1+ goals

71%

Gagra 2+ goals

36%

Gagra 3+ goals

13%

Saburtalo 1+ goals

79%

Saburtalo 2+ goals

45%

Saburtalo 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Gagra (draw refunded)

41%

Saburtalo (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gagra at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.46 · 85 matches

Saburtalo away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.33 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gagra attack 1.18 + Saburtalo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Saburtalo attack 1.63 + Gagra defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Gagra scores more

31%

level

25%

Saburtalo scores more

44%

Saburtalo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Saburtalo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff