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Fylkir vs Völsungur — 1. Deild 2026

Fylkir
Fylkir
Preview
18:00
Völsungur
Völsungur
7/29/20261. Deild1. Deild · Round 16
56%
Fylkir
model favours
56%20%24%

Völsungur score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
74%
over 2.5 goals
71%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Fylkir56%
×Draw20%
Völsungur24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fylkir
2.37
Völsungur
1.52

Fylkir creates 56% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 17 away

creates per match

Fylkir
2.09
Völsungur
1.59

allows per match

Fylkir
1.45
Völsungur
2.65

finishing

Fylkir+0.00on par
Völsungur+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fylkir ↓

Völsungur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Fylkir or draw
76%
Fylkir or Völsungur
80%
Draw or Völsungur
44%

Winning margin

Fylkir wins by 2+
35%
Völsungur wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Fylkir 1+ goals
91%
Fylkir 2+ goals
68%
Fylkir 3+ goals
42%
Völsungur 1+ goals
78%
Völsungur 2+ goals
45%
Völsungur 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Fylkir (draw refunded)
70%
Völsungur (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fylkir at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.45 · 22 matches

Völsungur away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fylkir attack 2.09 + Völsungur defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.37

Völsungur attack 1.59 + Fylkir defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Fylkir scores more
56%
level
20%
Völsungur scores more
24%

Fylkir at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Fylkir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 88% of Völsungur’s matches
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (71% and 75% over 2.5)
  • Fylkir score first in only 29% of matches
  • 75% of Völsungur’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 71% of Fylkir’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Fylkir have won 3 of the last 4 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Fylkir
WWLWW
Völsungur
LDDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Fylkir host Völsungur

July 29, 2026: Fylkir take on Völsungur in 1. Deild. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.