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Fylkir vs Grotta — 1. Deild 2026

Fylkir
Fylkir
Preview
19:15
Grotta
Grotta
8/28/20261. Deild1. Deild · Round 21
Big match
55%
Fylkir
model favours
55%21%24%

Grotta have scored in 15 games running

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
68%
over 2.5 goals
66%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Fylkir55%
×Draw21%
Grotta24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fylkir
2.15
Grotta
1.37

Fylkir creates 57% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 14 away

creates per match

Fylkir
2.09
Grotta
1.29

allows per match

Fylkir
1.45
Grotta
2.21

finishing

Fylkir+0.00on par
Grotta+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fylkir ↓

Grotta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Fylkir or draw
76%
Fylkir or Grotta
79%
Draw or Grotta
45%

Winning margin

Fylkir wins by 2+
33%
Grotta wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Fylkir 1+ goals
88%
Fylkir 2+ goals
63%
Fylkir 3+ goals
36%
Grotta 1+ goals
75%
Grotta 2+ goals
40%
Grotta 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Fylkir (draw refunded)
69%
Grotta (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fylkir at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.45 · 22 matches

Grotta away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fylkir attack 2.09 + Grotta defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.15

Grotta attack 1.29 + Fylkir defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Fylkir scores more
55%
level
21%
Grotta scores more
24%

Fylkir at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Fylkir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 88% of Grotta’s matches
  • Fylkir score first in only 29% of matches
  • Fylkir have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • 71% of Fylkir’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (71% and 63% over 2.5)
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Fylkir
WWLWW
Grotta
LWWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fylkir face Grotta (1. Deild)

1. Deild returns with Fylkir hosting Grotta. Match starts August 28, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.