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Futbol Consultants Moravia vs Cariari Pococi — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Futbol Consultants Moravia
Futbol Consultants Moravia
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cariari Pococi
Cariari Pococi
9/7/2024Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 8Estadio CDI José Joaquín Colleya Fonseca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Futbol Consultants Moravia47%
×Draw24%
Cariari Pococi29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Futbol Consultants Moravia
1.67
Cariari Pococi
1.25

Futbol Consultants Moravia creates 34% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 107 away

creates per match

Futbol Consultants Moravia
1.53
Cariari Pococi
1.23

allows per match

Futbol Consultants Moravia
1.27
Cariari Pococi
1.80

finishing

Futbol Consultants Moravia+0.00on par
Cariari Pococi+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Futbol Consultants Moravia ↓

Cariari Pococi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Futbol Consultants Moravia or draw
71%
Futbol Consultants Moravia or Cariari Pococi
76%
Draw or Cariari Pococi
53%

Winning margin

Futbol Consultants Moravia wins by 2+
25%
Cariari Pococi wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Futbol Consultants Moravia 1+ goals
81%
Futbol Consultants Moravia 2+ goals
50%
Futbol Consultants Moravia 3+ goals
23%
Cariari Pococi 1+ goals
71%
Cariari Pococi 2+ goals
36%
Cariari Pococi 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Futbol Consultants Moravia (draw refunded)
62%
Cariari Pococi (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Futbol Consultants Moravia at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.27 · 126 matches

Cariari Pococi away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.80 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Futbol Consultants Moravia attack 1.53 + Cariari Pococi defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.67

Cariari Pococi attack 1.23 + Futbol Consultants Moravia defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Futbol Consultants Moravia scores more
47%
level
24%
Cariari Pococi scores more
29%

Futbol Consultants Moravia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Futbol Consultants Moravia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Futbol Consultants Moravia 0 – 1 Cariari Pococi

Cariari Pococi beat Futbol Consultants Moravia 1-0 in Liga de Ascenso on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio CDI José Joaquín Colleya Fonseca in San José.