Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Futbol Consultants Moravia vs Barrio México — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Futbol Consultants Moravia
Futbol Consultants Moravia
FT
1 – 1
Barrio México
Barrio México
A. Gutierrez 70'
S. Cardenas 60'
10/25/2020Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 8Estadio CDI José Joaquín Colleya Fonseca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Futbol Consultants Moravia40%
×Draw25%
Barrio México35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Futbol Consultants Moravia
1.46
Barrio México
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 125 home / 43 away

creates per match

Futbol Consultants Moravia
1.54
Barrio México
1.42

allows per match

Futbol Consultants Moravia
1.26
Barrio México
1.37

finishing

Futbol Consultants Moravia+0.00on par
Barrio México+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Futbol Consultants Moravia ↓

Barrio México →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Futbol Consultants Moravia or draw
65%
Futbol Consultants Moravia or Barrio México
75%
Draw or Barrio México
60%

Winning margin

Futbol Consultants Moravia wins by 2+
19%
Barrio México wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Futbol Consultants Moravia 1+ goals
77%
Futbol Consultants Moravia 2+ goals
43%
Futbol Consultants Moravia 3+ goals
18%
Barrio México 1+ goals
74%
Barrio México 2+ goals
39%
Barrio México 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Futbol Consultants Moravia (draw refunded)
54%
Barrio México (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Futbol Consultants Moravia at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.26 · 125 matches

Barrio México away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.37 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Futbol Consultants Moravia attack 1.54 + Barrio México defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.46

Barrio México attack 1.42 + Futbol Consultants Moravia defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Futbol Consultants Moravia scores more
40%
level
25%
Barrio México scores more
35%

Futbol Consultants Moravia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Futbol Consultants Moravia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'
S. Cardenas
70'
A. Gutierrez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Futbol Consultants Moravia vs Barrio México

Futbol Consultants Moravia and Barrio México drew 1-1 in Liga de Ascenso on October 25, 2020.

Goals: S. Cardenas (60'), A. Gutierrez (70').

The match was played at Estadio CDI José Joaquín Colleya Fonseca in San José.