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Futbol Consultants Moravia vs Aserri FC — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Futbol Consultants Moravia
Futbol Consultants Moravia
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Aserri FC
Aserri FC
10/4/2024Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 13Estadio CDI José Joaquín Colleya Fonseca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Futbol Consultants Moravia47%
×Draw25%
Aserri FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Futbol Consultants Moravia
1.60
Aserri FC
1.17

Futbol Consultants Moravia creates 37% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 106 away

creates per match

Futbol Consultants Moravia
1.53
Aserri FC
1.07

allows per match

Futbol Consultants Moravia
1.27
Aserri FC
1.68

finishing

Futbol Consultants Moravia+0.00on par
Aserri FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Futbol Consultants Moravia ↓

Aserri FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Futbol Consultants Moravia or draw
72%
Futbol Consultants Moravia or Aserri FC
75%
Draw or Aserri FC
53%

Winning margin

Futbol Consultants Moravia wins by 2+
24%
Aserri FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Futbol Consultants Moravia 1+ goals
80%
Futbol Consultants Moravia 2+ goals
47%
Futbol Consultants Moravia 3+ goals
22%
Aserri FC 1+ goals
69%
Aserri FC 2+ goals
33%
Aserri FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Futbol Consultants Moravia (draw refunded)
63%
Aserri FC (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Futbol Consultants Moravia at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.27 · 126 matches

Aserri FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.68 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Futbol Consultants Moravia attack 1.53 + Aserri FC defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.60

Aserri FC attack 1.07 + Futbol Consultants Moravia defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Futbol Consultants Moravia scores more
47%
level
25%
Aserri FC scores more
28%

Futbol Consultants Moravia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Futbol Consultants Moravia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Futbol Consultants Moravia 2–0 Aserri FC

Futbol Consultants Moravia beat Aserri FC 2-0 in Liga de Ascenso on October 4, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio CDI José Joaquín Colleya Fonseca in San José.