Futbol Consultants Moravia 2–2 Aserri FC

Futbol Consultants Moravia

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Aserri FC

S. Moreno 89', 65'

P. Esquivel 58'

V. Chavarria 16'

10/1/2022

Liga de Ascenso · Apertura - 14Estadio Jorge Hernán Cuty Monge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Futbol Consultants Moravia48%

×Draw25%

Aserri FC28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Futbol Consultants MoraviaExpected goals in this matchAserri FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.17

Futbol Consultants Moravia

1.61

Aserri FC

1.17

Futbol Consultants Moravia creates 38% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 106 away

1.54

creates per match

1.07

1.26

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Futbol Consultants Moravia

1.54

Aserri FC

1.07

allows per match

Futbol Consultants Moravia

1.26

Aserri FC

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Futbol Consultants Moravia+0.00on par

Aserri FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Futbol Consultants Moravia ↓

Aserri FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Futbol Consultants Moravia or draw

72%

Futbol Consultants Moravia or Aserri FC

75%

Draw or Aserri FC

52%

Winning margin

Futbol Consultants Moravia wins by 2+

25%

Aserri FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Futbol Consultants Moravia 1+ goals

80%

Futbol Consultants Moravia 2+ goals

48%

Futbol Consultants Moravia 3+ goals

22%

Aserri FC 1+ goals

69%

Aserri FC 2+ goals

33%

Aserri FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Futbol Consultants Moravia (draw refunded)

63%

Aserri FC (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Futbol Consultants Moravia at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.26 · 125 matches

Aserri FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.68 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Futbol Consultants Moravia attack 1.54 + Aserri FC defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.61

Aserri FC attack 1.07 + Futbol Consultants Moravia defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Futbol Consultants Moravia scores more

48%

level

25%

Aserri FC scores more

28%

Futbol Consultants Moravia at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Futbol Consultants Moravia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

V. Chavarria

58'

P. Esquivel

65'

S. Moreno

70'

89'

S. Moreno

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff