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Fussach vs Nenzing — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Fussach
Fussach
PST
22:00
Nenzing
Nenzing
6/5/2020Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 29Sportanlage Müss Fussach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Fussach46%
×Draw21%
Nenzing33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fussach
2.03
Nenzing
1.70

Fussach creates 19% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 84 away

creates per match

Fussach
1.91
Nenzing
1.81

allows per match

Fussach
1.59
Nenzing
2.15

finishing

Fussach+0.00on par
Nenzing+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fussach ↓

Nenzing →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Fussach or draw
67%
Fussach or Nenzing
79%
Draw or Nenzing
54%

Winning margin

Fussach wins by 2+
26%
Nenzing wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Fussach 1+ goals
87%
Fussach 2+ goals
60%
Fussach 3+ goals
33%
Nenzing 1+ goals
82%
Nenzing 2+ goals
51%
Nenzing 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Fussach (draw refunded)
58%
Nenzing (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fussach at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.59 · 46 matches

Nenzing away — creates 1.81, concedes 2.15 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fussach attack 1.91 + Nenzing defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.03

Nenzing attack 1.81 + Fussach defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Fussach scores more
46%
level
21%
Nenzing scores more
33%

Fussach at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Fussach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fussach vs Nenzing — Match Preview

Fussach face Nenzing on June 5, 2020 in this Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Fussach host Nenzing at Sportanlage Müss Fussach.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.