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Fussach vs Ludesch — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Fussach
Fussach
FT
4 – 0
Ludesch
Ludesch
10/3/2020Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 11Sportanlage Müss

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Fussach49%
×Draw22%
Ludesch30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fussach
2.03
Ludesch
1.55

Fussach creates 31% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 73 away

creates per match

Fussach
1.91
Ludesch
1.51

allows per match

Fussach
1.59
Ludesch
2.15

finishing

Fussach+0.00on par
Ludesch+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fussach ↓

Ludesch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Fussach or draw
70%
Fussach or Ludesch
78%
Draw or Ludesch
51%

Winning margin

Fussach wins by 2+
28%
Ludesch wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Fussach 1+ goals
87%
Fussach 2+ goals
60%
Fussach 3+ goals
33%
Ludesch 1+ goals
79%
Ludesch 2+ goals
46%
Ludesch 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Fussach (draw refunded)
62%
Ludesch (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fussach at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.59 · 46 matches

Ludesch away — creates 1.51, concedes 2.15 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fussach attack 1.91 + Ludesch defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.03

Ludesch attack 1.51 + Fussach defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Fussach scores more
49%
level
22%
Ludesch scores more
30%

Fussach at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Fussach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga: Fussach 4–0 Ludesch

Fussach beat Ludesch 4-0 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on October 3, 2020.

The match was played at Sportanlage Müss in Fußach.