FUS Rabat vs Raja Casablanca — Botola Pro 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 117+ matches
FUS Rabat35%
Raja Casablanca36%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 117 home / 119 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under63
- Over37
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No56
- Yes44
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
FUS Rabat ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
FUS Rabat at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.87 · 117 matches
Raja Casablanca away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.93 · 119 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
FUS Rabat attack 1.26 + Raja Casablanca defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.09
Raja Casablanca attack 1.33 + FUS Rabat defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.10
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 36%?"
Raja Casablanca at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 36% does not mean "Raja Casablanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Wydad ACRaja Casablanca
Hassania Agadir
Olympique Safi
Ittihad Tanger
Youssoufia Berrechid
Difaa EL Jadida
Renaissance BerkaneFUS Rabat
Rapide Oued ZEM
Mouloudia Oujda
Moghreb Tetouan
FAR Rabat
Olympique Khouribga
Kawkab Marrakech
Chabab RIF HoceimaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
FUS Rabat host Raja Casablanca on Wednesday, 19 August 2020 at 19:00. The match is part of the Botola Pro 2025/2026 season.
Botola Pro: FUS Rabat 0–1 Raja Casablanca
Raja Casablanca beat FUS Rabat 1-0 in Botola Pro on August 19, 2020.
Goals: M. Moutouali (29').
The match was played at Prince Moulay Abdellah Stadium in Rabat.