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FUS Rabat vs Olympique Khouribga — Botola Pro 2025

FUS Rabat
FUS Rabat
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Olympique Khouribga
Olympique Khouribga
3/3/2020Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 19Prince Moulay Abdellah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

FUS Rabat47%
×Draw29%
Olympique Khouribga25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FUS Rabat
1.29
Olympique Khouribga
0.85

FUS Rabat creates 52% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 60 away

creates per match

FUS Rabat
1.26
Olympique Khouribga
0.82

allows per match

FUS Rabat
0.88
Olympique Khouribga
1.33

finishing

FUS Rabat+0.00on par
Olympique Khouribga+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FUS Rabat ↓

Olympique Khouribga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

FUS Rabat or draw
75%
FUS Rabat or Olympique Khouribga
71%
Draw or Olympique Khouribga
53%

Winning margin

FUS Rabat wins by 2+
22%
Olympique Khouribga wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FUS Rabat 1+ goals
72%
FUS Rabat 2+ goals
37%
FUS Rabat 3+ goals
14%
Olympique Khouribga 1+ goals
57%
Olympique Khouribga 2+ goals
21%
Olympique Khouribga 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

FUS Rabat (draw refunded)
66%
Olympique Khouribga (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FUS Rabat at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.88 · 121 matches

Olympique Khouribga away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FUS Rabat attack 1.26 + Olympique Khouribga defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Olympique Khouribga attack 0.82 + FUS Rabat defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FUS Rabat scores more
47%
level
29%
Olympique Khouribga scores more
25%

FUS Rabat at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FUS Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FUS Rabat vs Olympique Khouribga

FUS Rabat beat Olympique Khouribga 1-0 in Botola Pro on March 3, 2020.

The match was played at Prince Moulay Abdellah Stadium in Rabat.