Fundacion AIFI 0–1 Nueva Esparta: Result & Stats

Fundacion AIFI

FT

0 – 1

Nueva Esparta

4/10/2022

Segunda División · 1st Phase - 3CTE Cachamay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Fundacion AIFI47%

×Draw29%

Nueva Esparta24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fundacion AIFIExpected goals in this matchNueva Esparta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

0.80

Fundacion AIFI

1.24

Nueva Esparta

0.80

Fundacion AIFI creates 55% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 38 away

1.06

creates per match

0.58

1.02

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Fundacion AIFI

1.06

Nueva Esparta

0.58

allows per match

Fundacion AIFI

1.02

Nueva Esparta

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fundacion AIFI+0.00on par

Nueva Esparta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fundacion AIFI ↓

Nueva Esparta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Fundacion AIFI or draw

76%

Fundacion AIFI or Nueva Esparta

71%

Draw or Nueva Esparta

53%

Winning margin

Fundacion AIFI wins by 2+

21%

Nueva Esparta wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Fundacion AIFI 1+ goals

71%

Fundacion AIFI 2+ goals

35%

Fundacion AIFI 3+ goals

13%

Nueva Esparta 1+ goals

55%

Nueva Esparta 2+ goals

19%

Nueva Esparta 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Fundacion AIFI (draw refunded)

66%

Nueva Esparta (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fundacion AIFI at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.02 · 66 matches

Nueva Esparta away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.42 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fundacion AIFI attack 1.06 + Nueva Esparta defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.24

Nueva Esparta attack 0.58 + Fundacion AIFI defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Fundacion AIFI scores more

47%

level

29%

Nueva Esparta scores more

24%

Fundacion AIFI at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Fundacion AIFI will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff