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Fundacion AIFI vs Bolívar — Segunda División 2018

Fundacion AIFI
Fundacion AIFI
PST
19:30
Bolívar
Bolívar
5/29/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 3CTE Cachamay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Fundacion AIFI32%
×Draw29%
Bolívar40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fundacion AIFI
1.03
Bolívar
1.19

Bolívar creates 16% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 17 away

creates per match

Fundacion AIFI
1.06
Bolívar
1.35

allows per match

Fundacion AIFI
1.02
Bolívar
1.00

finishing

Fundacion AIFI+0.00on par
Bolívar+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fundacion AIFI ↓

Bolívar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Fundacion AIFI or draw
60%
Fundacion AIFI or Bolívar
71%
Draw or Bolívar
68%

Winning margin

Fundacion AIFI wins by 2+
12%
Bolívar wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Fundacion AIFI 1+ goals
64%
Fundacion AIFI 2+ goals
28%
Fundacion AIFI 3+ goals
9%
Bolívar 1+ goals
70%
Bolívar 2+ goals
33%
Bolívar 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Fundacion AIFI (draw refunded)
44%
Bolívar (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fundacion AIFI at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.02 · 66 matches

Bolívar away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fundacion AIFI attack 1.06 + Bolívar defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.03

Bolívar attack 1.35 + Fundacion AIFI defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fundacion AIFI scores more
32%
level
29%
Bolívar scores more
40%

Bolívar at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fundacion AIFI face Bolívar (Segunda División)

Segunda División returns with Fundacion AIFI hosting Bolívar. Match starts May 29, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Fundacion AIFI host Bolívar at CTE Cachamay.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.